India’s GDP projected to grow at 6.2% in FY18; real agriculture GVA would grow at 3 percent: Study

New Delhi: India’s GDP is projected to grow at 6.2 percent in 2017-18, a report by economic think-tank NCAER said. In its mid-year review of the economy, NCAER said it forecasts a growth of 6.2 percent for 2017-18 for both GVA (gross value added) at basic prices and gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices.

The economic think-tank also said real agriculture GVA is would grow at 3 percent, real industry GVA at 4.5 percent, and real services GVA at 7.6 percent in 2017-18. “The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 6.7 percent for 2017-18,” it said.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said the growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 10.7 percent and 24.4 percent, respectively in 2017-18, adding, “the current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at -2.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively for 2017-18.”

The think-tank also pointed out that with the southwest monsoon being close to its normal distribution, and achieving satisfactory spatial and temporal distribution as compared to last year, the current year is expected to be a year of normal growth for the agricultural sector.

“The estimated output of kharif rice is expected to witness an increase of 2.1 percent to 3.3 percent due to a combination of good rainfall and its somewhat better distribution in the rice-growing regions,” it said.

However, NCAER added that the output of kharif coarse cereals and pulses is likely to drop due to higher output being achieved last year and somewhat poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall in areas where these crops are cultivated.

It also said the projected output of sugarcane is also likely to be close to last year’s level of output. The Economic Survey had projected a growth of 6.75 percent to 7.5 percent for 2017-18.

Recently, multilateral lending agency World Bank has also said that India’s GDP may slow from 8.6 percent in 2015 to 7.0 percent in 2017 because of disruptions by demonetisation and the GST.

The International Monetary Fund has also last month lowered India’s growth projection to 6.7 percent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than Chinas 6.8 percent.

Source: Firstpost

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